Tracking Tesla into September
2025-09-03
I’ve traded Tesla through plenty of cycles, and I’d call myself neutral on the stock here. What keeps me interested isn’t just the price swings — it’s the vision. Few companies even try to play at this scale, let-alone compete…and even fewer leaders are pushing ideas that could actually change how people live and work. Tesla has one with the best track record in the game.
No other entrepreneur has shaped as many industries as Musk — from energy to transport to AI — and Tesla sits at the center of that push. The real question is execution.
Tesla is still the lead innovator in the space, with a CEO whose vision alone commands a premium. That comes with volatility, and respect to those willing to simply own the stock and ride it out.
Snapshot & Options Activity
Current Price: $334.94 (after hours Wednesday, September 3/2025)
Notable put flow: Approximately 45k contracts traded at the Sep-25 $330 strike, showing hedging remains a priority at the least.
Market Cap: Approximately $1.08 trillion (Rank: Around 11th globally)
Volume: Around 88.7 million shares—which is in line with daily norms
RSI (14-day): Around 49—neutral territory, showing no extreme momentum signals
Tesla looks like it’s in a big test zone right now, I’m no expert and this is not financial advice for the record. To me, the $300–$320 area shows up as strong support on the volume profile, a spot where I’d expect long-term investors/swing traders and algos to keep accumulating at a lower key levels, like around $314 (200DMA) and $333 (50DMA). Resistance near $345–$350 is still capping moves, but that seems fine — this kind of back-and-forth builds a base, right? I’m staying light and calm here, seeing it as more of an accumulation range for the long game.
Source: Seeking Alpha Premium
Tesla Options Positioning — September Read
Tesla’s 30-day implied vol sits around 47%, elevated versus peers. which is well above S&P levels (Around 20–25%) and consistent with the stock’s headline-heavy swings. That kind of IV means hedging comes at a cost—but it's also the reason you can manage risk effectively.
IV elevated near 47% → market pricing swings, not panic.
Near-term (Sept weeklies): Put/Call volume mostly <0.7, leaning bullish.
Open interest ratio 0.88 → hedged/cautious but not considered bearish.
Longer-dated (2026+): more puts stacked → institutions protecting tail risk.
Source: Barchart
Tesla’s Three Multi-Trillion-Dollar Growth Pillars
l. Optimus Robotics
Musk has said about 80% of Tesla’s future value could come from Optimus, not cars. Powerful statement
Latest Gen-3 prototype (with Grok AI) was revealed in 2025.
Plans call for 5,000 units in 2025, scaling toward mass production in 2026 and long-term targets of 1M robots by 2029 at approximately $20–30K each.
Source: Tesla (YouTube)
ll. Autonomous Vehicles
Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin mid-2025, geofenced and still requiring a safety monitor.
FSD v14 is slated for late September, with a big step in autonomy but not fully driverless.
Surveys show nearly half of Americans remain skeptical of FSD safety, a regulatory headwind.
lll. Energy Generation and Storage
2024 energy generation & storage revenue: $10.1B (+67% YoY).
Driven mainly by Megapack grid-scale deployments; Powerwall and Solar are smaller contributors.
Gross margin improving, mid-to-high teens, supported by scale and IRA credits.
Demand pipeline is global — utilities and governments adopting Megapack for grid stability.
TAM (grid storage + distributed energy): multi-trillion over the next decade.
Real business, real dollars — $10B in sales in 2024, with continuation of aggressive growth into 2025.
Headline News & Catalysts
Musk doubled down on Optimus, claiming up to 80% of Tesla’s future value could come from robotics, not cars. That bold vision, echoed in Tesla’s Master Plan Part 4, is fueling narrative swings.
Coverage of Dojo’s pause and pivot to off-the-shelf AI chips has raised questions.
EV deliveries were down around 13% in 1H25, leaving robotics/robotaxi stories to shoulder the valuation case.
September catalysts: U.S. jobs report (Sept 5) will set Fed expectations; FOMC (Sept 16–17) shapes the cost of capital and hedging; regulatory updates around autonomy and any fresh surprises like an Optimus demo could spark volatility.
EV Versus S&P Landscape Performance (1Y)
Tesla (+58.6%) has clearly outperformed peers, riding the robotics/autonomy narrative while absorbing EV demand softness.
BYD (+39.2%) holds strong momentum in China, showing resilience despite regulatory pressure.
Rivian (+9.8%) and Toyota (+3.7%) lag, steady but far less explosive.
Lucid (-56.1%) shows the sharp downside risk in capital-heavy EV names.
SP500 (+16.6%) provides the baseline, reminding us how much Tesla trades as both growth + story premium.
Source: Seeking Alpha Premium
Conclusion
Tesla right now is less about the near-term numbers and more about the bigger story — robots, autonomy, energy storage, and Musk’s broader ecosystem creating a constant stream of tailwinds and volatility. The stock trades heavy on sentiment, with $340-$343 acting as a near-term lid, but it’s also clear that new partnerships, policy moves, and cross-company growth could keep feeding the narrative. I stay pretty neutral in the short term — high upside comes hand-in-hand with high vol — but hopeful on the long-term vision providing for investors if execution follows through. As always, this isn’t advice, just perspective — do your own research.
Thanks for reading.
Not financial advice.