No Chasing Required: Bitcoin Is Doing Exactly What It Should
2025-07-13
I remain bullish on Bitcoin—more so today than ever. As global money supply begins tightening while Bitcoin’s issuance remains capped by its protocol, supply continues to shrink even as demand grows. With M2 drying up and Bitcoin’s liquid supply down ~30% in the last 18 months, the stage is set for a long-term bull case.
Technical & On-Chain Overview
Price Action – Bitcoin just breached $122.2k, up ~29.52% YTD on a multitude of key factors like strong ETF inflows, tightening supply and true regulatory clarity.
Pi Cycle Top – We're tracking the 111 DMA vs. 350 DMA×2 crossover. Historically, it signals cycle highs, but they haven’t crossed yet.
Accumulation Pressure – Glassnode reports intense on-chain tightening and rising volatility, reinforcing a clear supply squeeze.
Sentiment & Outlook
Whales not dumping—still securing holdings
On-chain metrics showing supply constraint + capital build-up
Technicals remain bullish—momentum intact above $113k, targeting $128k–$135k next resistance
Cautions: Pi Cycle crossover may warn of overheat; expect a sharp but healthy pullback as seen historically, potentially short lived. As seen below we are still looking at quite a gap.
Bitcoin’s 200-Week Moving Average continues its steady climb — historically resetting before every major breakout. With momentum building and long-term velocity intact, the data tells a simple story: the cycle is far from over.
Last Week’s Whale Activity
1. Dormant Satoshi‑Era Wallets Awake
A whale that hasn’t moved for 14+ years transferred 80,000 BTC (~$8.6 B) across multiple SegWit addresses—likely a wallet security upgrade, not a dump
2. Another 40,000 BTC Moved (~$4.35 B)
On July 4, a whale from the early 2010s shifted 4×10,000 BTC transactions, also to non-exchange addresses—suggesting repositioning, not liquidation
3. Non-Exchange Transfers = Long-Term Positioning
Both large transfers went to non-exchange, cold wallets, signaling security or estate planning, not profit-taking
4. Exchange Whale Inflows Rising
CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio (30‑DMA) has spiked near 0.47, meaning ~47% of weekly BTC inflows are from large holders—yet no sharp sell-off has followed.
Bitcoin Week: A Real Catalyst, Not Just Noise?
This week marks what’s being called “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill — and for once, it actually matters. Lawmakers are stepping up with serious legislative moves around digital assets, including stablecoin clarity, market structure, and anti-CBDC protections. These aren’t theoretical whitepapers — we’re talking actual bills on the floor, being debated, refined, and potentially voted on.
For Bitcoin, this isn’t about hype — it’s about validation. Regulation brings access. And access brings capital.
Institutions need clarity before they allocate meaningfully. These moves out of D.C. — especially paired with ETF inflows and macro tailwinds (rate cut speculation heating up again) — represent a major unlock in that direction. It’s not regulation against crypto — it’s the framework that lets crypto actually scale.
We’ve been in this space since 2016. We’ve seen noise. This isn’t noise. This is narrative shifting in real time.
Combine that with whale wallets reactivating (without selling), rising exchange whale ratios, and a strong technical setup — and Bitcoin Week starts to look like a launchpad, not a top.
Conclusion
We remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. It’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to: tightening in supply, strengthening in conviction, and attracting capital as macro and regulatory frameworks shift in its favor.
Everything we’re seeing — from institutional flows to whale positioning to legislative momentum — reinforces the thesis we’ve held since 2016. The setup is playing out with precision.
We’ll continue to watch this market closely — not just for price action, but for how innovation, infrastructure, and policy evolve around it.
We’re not here to predict. We’re here to prepare.
We don’t chase outcomes — we position for them.
This is not financial advice. At 24K, we share thesis — not recommendations.
Do your own research. Stay sharp. Stay sovereign. Investing involves risk.